CLIMATE EXTREMES AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN KELANI RIVER BASIN, SRI LANKA AND IMPACTS ON STREAMFLOW VARIABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17501/2513258X.2018.2201Keywords:
Climate Change, Climate Extremes, Precipitation Temperature and Streamflow Trends, Statistical DownscalingAbstract
This paper focuses on and analyses the potential hydrological impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime of Kelani River Basin, Sri Lanka. The basin wide future hydrology is simulated by using downscaled temperature and precipitation outputs from the Canadian Earth System Model - Version 2 (CanESM2) and the Hydrologic Engineering Centre’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The research further evaluates the long-term behavior and trends of the climate extremes based on the observed historical temperature and precipitation data. The findings suggest that the temperature and precipitation extremes are on the rise while the annual average precipitation in the basin is declining. It is also predicted with the application of statistical downscaling that temperature may rise annually for representative concentration pathways of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A detailed modelling approach is incorporated to Hanwella sub-watershed (1799.67 km2) of the Kelani River basin to study the subsequent water resource management options required to ensure sustainable development alternatives with the varying streamflow of the Kelani River basin under the effect of the future (2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s) rainfall and temperature as impending climate change impacts. The paper reviews the current state of the catchment as well as the suitability of applying the GCM’s rather than RCM’s to Sri Lanka to assess this river basin, according to monthly, seasonal and annual variations of the climate data. Further, a quantitative analysis of the change of amount of surface water in the selected river basin with respect to the expected variations in precipitation and temperature is also carried out. The findings of this research and overall outcome will be useful in identifying possible sustainable water management scenarios with best management options and mitigation measures like land use and carbon emission management, etc. in a more meaningful manner in the future. This study will set the baseline for commencing and continuing quantitative studies incorporating the behavior of the basinwide climatology and streamflow variability with the use of GCM’s to achieve sustainable development goals.
Downloads
References
Archer, D. R., and Fowler, H.J., 2004. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the upper Indus basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications, HESS, 8, 47– 61.
De Silva, M. M. G. T., Weerakoon, S. B., and Herath, S., 2014. Modelling of event and continuous flow hydrographs with HEC-HMS: case study in the Kelani River basin, Sri Lanka. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 800-806
Eisner, S., Schewe, J., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Haddeland, I., Anrell, N. W., and Kabat, P., 2013. Multimodal assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Sustainability Science, 111(No. 09), 3245–3250.
Fowler, H. J., Kilsby, C. G., and Stunell, J., 2007. Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in North-west England. Hydrology & Earth System Science, 11(3), 1115–1126.
Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A. M. G., and Peterson, T., 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, 19, 193–212.
Gebremeskel, S., and Li, Y., 2005. Analysing the effect of climate changes on streamflow using statistically downscaled GCM scenarios. International Journal of River Basin Management, 271–280.
Hasson, S., Lucarini, V., and Pascale, S. 2013, Hydrological Cycle over South and Southeast Asian river basin as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments. Earth System Dynamics.
Herath, S., Weerakoon, S. B., Kawasaki, J., Koontanakulvong, S., Thuc, T., Tuan, L. A., and Tabios, G. Q., 2012. Comparative studies on development strategies considering impacts of adaptation to climate change. Report on Climate Change Adaptation Research Funded by Mitsui Corporation.
Huang, J., Zhang, J., Zhang, Z., Xu, C. Y., Wang, B., and Yao, J., 2010. Estimation of future precipitation change in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method. Springer - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25, 781–792.
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor M., and Miller H. L., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
IPCC, 2013b: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G. K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley P. M., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp., doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
Klein Tank, A. M. G., Peterson, T. C., Quadir, D. A., Dorji, S., Zou, X., Tang, H., Santhosh, K., Joshi, U. R., Jaswal, A. K., Kolli, R. K., Sikder, A. B., Deshpande, N. R., Revadekar, J. V., Yeleuova, K., Vandasheva, S., Faleyeva, M., Gomboluudev, P., Budhathoki, K. P., Hussain, A., Afzaal, M., Chandrapala, L., Anvar, H., Amanmurad, D., Asanova, V. S., Jones, P. D., New, M. G., and Spektorman, T., 2006. Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 111, 1-8.
Krol, M., Bronstert, A., Jaeger, A., Gunter, A., Hauschild, M., and Doll, P., 2000. Integrated modelling of water availability and water use in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil. Science Direct, 25(3), 227–232.
Lal, R., Delgoda, J. A., Groffman, P. M., Milar, N., Dell, C., and Rotz, A., 2011. Management to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 66(No. 04).
Mahmood, R., & Babel, M. S. (2012). Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Springer, 113(1–2), 27–44.
Mahmood, R., Babel, M. S., and Shaofeng, J. A., 2015. Assessment of temporal and spatial changes of future climate in the Jhelum river basin, Pakistan and India. Elsevier, 10, 40–55.
Patabandige, C. S., Kazama, S., and Komori, D., 2016. Near future climatic impact on seasonal runoff in Sri Lanka. Research Gate.
Salzmann, N., Frei, C., Vidale, P., and Hoelzle, M., 2007. The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios. Global and Planetary Change - Elsevier, 56, 188–202.
Stem, N., 2007, The economics of climate change: the stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 692.
Wetterhall, F., Bárdossy, A., Chen, D., Halldin, S., and Xu, C., 2008. Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation over Sweden using GCM output. Theoretical Applied Climatology - Springer, 1-9.
Wetterhall, F., Halldin, S., and Xu, C., 2004. Statistical precipitation downscaling in central Sweden with the analogue method. Journal of Hydrology – Elsevier, 306 (2005), 174-190.
Wilby, R. L., and Wigley, T. M. L., 2000. Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and General Circulation Model relationship. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 641–661.
Wilby, R. L., Whitehead, P. G., Wade, A. J., Butterfield, D., Davis, R. J., and Watts, G., 2006. Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK. Elsevier, 330, 204–220.
