CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS: A CASE STUDY OF QUINTANA ROO, MEXICO

Abstract

This study addresses the climate change vulnerability of Quintana Roo, Mexico, a region renowned for its natural beauty and touristic appeal. Facing environmental challenges such as rising sea temperatures, reduced precipitation, and increased natural disasters, the region's susceptibility is exacerbated by its rapid population growth and high dependence on tourism. Utilizing the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, this research employs the Max Plank Institute-Earth System Model on Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) climate model to project temperature anomalies in the mid (2045-2069) and long term (2075-2099). The research objectives involve assessing vulnerability and projecting future temperature changes. Methodologically, the study isolates Quintana Roo using GIS, calculates temperature differences between reference and projected scenarios, and visualizes the results.  The results indicate alarming temperature increases, reaching up to 4.1°C in the pessimistic scenario. The implications are profound, posing severe consequences for the region's equilibrium and livelihoods. In conclusion, this research underscores the critical need for immediate action to address climate change in Quintana Roo. As climate change is a global challenge, the findings contribute to the broader understanding of climate impacts on vulnerable regions.