FUTURE PROJECTION OF EXTREME RAINFALL OVER MALAYSIA USING HIGHRESMIP (CMIP6) DURING BOREAL WINTER AND SUMMER
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17501/2513258X.2024.8103Keywords:
Malaysia, climate model, HighResMIP, Extreme RainfallAbstract
Climate change is known to influence the behavior of extreme precipitation and bring detrimental effects such as extreme drought, heatwaves, flooding, and storm surge. This study aims to evaluate the capability of three High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating extreme precipitation. The best model will be used for future extreme rainfall projection in Malaysia. The three models that were utilised are CMCC-CM2-VHR4, FGOALS-F3-H and MRI-AGCM3-2-S. There are three extreme indices from Expert Team on Sector Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) were used for evaluation. Results showed that MRI-AGCM3-2-S was the most consistent model that is able to simulate the extreme indices compared to the other models. However, this model was not efficient in simulating rainfall at high topography areas. During December-January-February (DJF) season, the eastern region received more rainfall compared to that of western part. East Malaysia, east and central Sabah are wetter compared to the central of Sarawak. In contrast, June-July-August (JJA) season experiences widespread drying in most of the study areas. The future was projected to experience less dry days with intensified rainfall that occurred in short period of time. This study in line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 13 which to limit and adapt in climate action. Early warning systems and adaptive strategies can be designed based on this thorough evaluation, contributing to a sustainable approach in addressing the challenges posed by climate extremes over Malaysia.
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