INVESTIGATING THE IMPACTS OF ENSO AND IOD ON RICE PRODUCTIVITY IN SOUTH SUMATRA, INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17501/26827018.2023.8103Keywords:
ENSO, IOD, rice productivity, South Sumatra, lowland swamp areaAbstract
Agriculture is a key sector in Indonesia, with rice being a staple crop and a major source of food for the country's population. However, climate variability, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, can have significant impacts on agricultural productivity, particularly in lowland swamp areas where rice is cultivated. This research investigates the impact of both ENSO and IOD on rainfall and rice productivity in lowland swamp areas of South Sumatra, Indonesia, with a focus on food security. The study uses precipitation datasets generated by merging a satellite-gauge precipitation with precipitation observations from several rain-gauge stations located throughout South Sumatra for the period of 1983-2022. Historical data indicates that El Niño events combined with positive IOD phases lead to decreased rainfall in South Sumatra, often causing droughts. In contrast, La Niña phases with negative IOD increase precipitation, resulting in potential flooding and waterlogging issues. Rice cultivation analysis highlights Supron I as the predominant harvesting period, with 49.8% of the total harvested area. Following El Niño periods, there is a rise in harvested areas of Supron I, likely due to the transformation of dried swamps into farmable land. However, increased rainfall during La Niña adversely affects rice yields in this period. These observations highlight the importance of adaptive strategies in the face of climate variability to ensure food security in the region.
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